(Political Analysis)
By
Anas Sani Anka.
Social media has been washed with a series of confusion as Zamfara PDP and APC supporters continue to generate heated discussion among party supporters over rumor of Zamfara Governor’s defection to the APC.
It was not clear whether it is true that the Governor is really planning to defect, even as some social media posts continue to perfect such rumors.
A few weeks back, during the Id-el Kabir festivity, minister of state defense Bello Muhammad Matawalle pointed accusing fingers at Governor Dauda Lawal that he has been reaching out to APC stakeholders in Abuja through an informal channels trying to perfect his planned defection to the APC.
Matawalle while addressing APC supporters in Maradun reaffirmed the rumors and emphasized that Governor Dauda Lawal has been making moves to defect to the APC and that they have welcomed him even though he insisted that the Governor has to follow a formal channel.
But even before the Matawalle’s assertion, there had been such rumors, but it was vehemently denied by the Governor himself through a viral video on the social media.
But political observers believed that for Minister Bello Matawalle to renew such a rumor he might have been contacted by high level source from the APC national on the Governor’s move.
A political analyst, Ahmad Abubakar Maradun insisted that the rumor on Governor’s defection is becoming real as stakeholders like Bello Matwalle have been raising alarm which makes the rumor to look more realistic.
Maradun carefully pointed that the Governor might have his reasons to defecting to APC but, like Matawalle said, he should have carefully followed the rule to avoid falling into a victim.
But more recently, the PDP spokesman in Zamfara Malam Haliru Andi said such rumor are directly a reflection of fake news promoted by the APC supporters as Governor Dauda Lawal remain a member of the ruling PDP.
Mainan Gusau in an interview with Thunder Blowers Multimedia Services insisted that the Governor has no moral ground to defect, hence people of Zamfara are still supporting Dauda administration because he has done well to fulfill his campaign promise earlier took.
WHY IS THE RUMOR OF GOVERNOR’S DEFECTION RAISING DUST?
Analyst argued that some people within the ruling PDP have the fear of the Governor’s defection to APC because of the previous experience of how other Governors in Zamfara defected and the repercussions that accompanied such a decision.
Maradun, for instance, argued that, the Governor should ordinarily learn lesson from the experience of his immediate predecessor, Bello Matawalle whose defection caused him his seat during the 2023 election.
He argued that the alarm raised by Matawalle that Governor Dauda should follow the appropriate channels in trying to defect is orderly because he Matawalle have learned the lesson from the dangers of defecting into a party from Abuja.
He warned that APC supporters have become experts in dealing with anyone who attempted to intrude into their party without following due process.
A PDP supporter who does not want to be named told this medium that the Governor’s defection is a direct reflection of his attempt to betray Zamfara voters and for sure, if the rumors become true, he should surely wait for the repercussions that may accompany such a decision.
He argued that regardless of who or what may influence the Governor, it is only wise if he can tarry a while and make a perfect reflection of what Zamfara people have done for him in 2023 and also take the most wisest decision before commiting such a suicidal political transit.
Haliru Andi the PDP spokesman told this medium in an interview that Governor Dauda has done perfectly well in trying to deliver on the promises he has made for Zamfara people.
He said the Governor has nothing to fear while remaining in the PDP because the party remain a platform to reckon with as people of Zamfara will continue to show their solidarity with the party.
A PDP chieftain who doesn’t want to be named insisted that the fear everybody in the Zamfara PDP about the Governor’s plan defection is that those that have suffered in building this government were not adequately compensated, and now he is moving to APC to woe another crowd that may eventually come and take over the juicy of the government on the flatter of gold.
THE EXPERIENCES OF DEFECTION BY GOVERNORS IN ZAMFARA SINCE 2009
It is like a spiritual antecedent that defection by Governors in Zamfara are always not without some consequences, simply because some seating Governors have tried that since 2011 and have some bad stories to tell.
Mahmuda Aliyu Shinkafi had for instance won election under the platform of ANPP but due to some political misunderstanding with his former principal Ahmad Sani Yarima he defected to the PDP in 2009 and eventually lost election to the APC led Sen. Abdul Aziz Yari
Matawalle also became a Governor of Zamfara by way of Supreme Court verdict in 2019 and after two years of his political journey, he decided to defect to the APC amidst tension and rejection by Yari supporters.
His political journey into the APC cost him a lot as he lost his second term bid to the present Governor Dauda Lawal in the same PDP where Matawalle left
Political observers like Ahmad Maradun have argued that, learning from the lessons of history, Governor Dauda should have stayed clear of planned defection out of the PDP because of the fear of political uncertainties which may accompanied him.
He argued that the worst that may happen to Governor Dauda if he direly defects is to possibly suffer an “electoral defeat“ as people who decisively voted for him against the will of the APC in 2023 may decided to teach him a political lesson.
There are also those with the popular argument that abandoning PDP by Governor Dauda will resulted intocommitting a political suicide because the very God that gives power to Dauda in the PDP can still give it to him if he choses to remain within the party..
Those that belong to this school of thought are always of the belief that defecting to the PDP will be a complete betray on the will of God enforced on Dauda which God almighty in his wisdom can decide otherwise.
AN ANALOGY OF RELIEF TO ZAMFARA APC INTERNAL CRISES
Some APC members in Zamfara are of the humble view that the defection of Governor Dauda Lawal to APC will surely bring an end to the Zamfara APC internal crises.
Sani Abdullahi Wamban Shinkafi one of the APC chieftains insisted that if Governor Dauda defects to the APC the party’s internal crises will be tackled because the Governor may be given a sole ticket for Governorship in 2027 election.
He argued that “people like me will never give up on ensuring that primary election is conducted within the APC except if Governor Dauda is given an automatic ticket or in alternative the former Governor Mahmuda Shinkafi is allowed to re-contest again for the completion of his second term bid.
There are many among APC supporters who believe that, Governor Dauda’s defection is the only option that can save APC from losing again in 2027 because no one from among the key stakeholders will allow one person to take over the party.
THE POSSIBLE POWER PLAY AFTER THE GOVERNOR’S DEFECTION TO APC
Political observers are of the view that if Governor Dauda Lawal defected to the APC he may be the new Sharif in town because President Tinubu may re-align well with him to secure his votes for the 2027 election.
Already Orji Uzo Kalu has made a highlight of what may likely happen if Governor Dauda Lawal defects to the APC and that the mighty of the federal government may likely go in green signal with him because he is the one steering the ship, a PDP member in Zamfara stated.
Again there are those that argue that if the Governor defected both Matawalle and Yari may end of losing their supporters because, for the second time, many of them may choose to align with the powers that be to be able to sit well secure appointments, contracts and get reabsorbed into the mainstream state service wirh relative ease.
Again the allegations of sabotage on security perspective usually raised by Governor against some powers at the federal level, especially Minister of state, may lower down because the Governor being an APC man, will have uninterrupted access to the seat of power for proper decision making.
Again, the portion of what belongs to Zamfara state in terms of federal booties will henceforth come through the Governor of Zamfara state directly as the leader of the party and Zamfara being an APC state will always get what is appropriate because it align it self with states that are no longer in the opposition.
Above all, the crises of the political class between Yari, Matawalle, and possibly Dauda Lawal will come to an end because both the political actors wouldl be on the same train with Governor Dauda as the captain.
THE FATE OF SEN. MARAFA AND OTHER STAKEHOLDERS IF THE GOVERNOR EVENTUALLY DEFECTS TO APC
Many stakeholders still ask for this significant question that what will be the fate of other critical stakeholders like Sen. Kabir Marafa, Aminu Sani Jaji and others if the rumor of the plan defection of Governor Dauda became true.
The reason being that no one is ever talking about them amidst this drama, especially that those from Yari and Matawalle factions of the APC have the belief that with the exceptoon of their political leaders the rest are no more essential in the Zamfara APC political permutations.
But analysts believe that, these same people if abandoned after the Governor’s defection, may constitute as serious threat to the political journey of the Governor within the APC.
GOVERNOR DAUDA AND FATE OF HIS SUPPORTERS AFTER DEFECTION.
There are those that have the opinion that, the defection of Dauda Lawal to the APC will now create another gap for him to begin to scout for better ways to manage his political supporters because the majority of them may not be happy and willing to join him to the new party.
This, according to many observers, will constitute another political burden to the Governor as he may likely face the same group of his supporters who may turn to be his opponents in the 2027 election either in the PDP or the opposition coalition.
Matawalle lost people like Kabiru Amadu, Kabiru Yahaya Classique, Bello Hassan and many others who decide not to defect together with him to APC and also won their election in 2023 with wide mergin.
The combination of these factors highlighted and many more to come will constitute a serious dust for the Governor’s planned defection to APC. As for his chances in 2027 only God can tell.
